Club Brugge Belgian Pro League 21-05-2023 14:30 Sunday Club Brugge VS Royal Antwerp Venue: Jan Breydelstadion Weather: Partly cloudy, 17℃～18℃
Club Brugge has scored an average of 1.9 goals per match and conceded 1.4.
Royal Antwerp has scored an average of 1.7 goals per match and conceded 0.5.
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We first need to estimate the average goals per match for each team. This can be done using recent performance and historical data:
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Club Brugge has scored an average of 1.3 (recent 3 matches) to 1.9 (recent 10 matches) goals per match. Considering the recent 10 matches as more reliable due to larger data size, we estimate λ (Poisson parameter) for Club Brugge as 1.9.
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Royal Antwerp has scored an average of 2.3 (recent 3 matches) to 1.7 (recent 10 matches) goals per match. Using the recent 10 matches, we estimate λ for Royal Antwerp as 1.7.
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The likelihood of each team scoring 0, 1, or 2 goals was determined using the Poisson distribution. The sum of these probabilities gives the chance of the match ending with under 2.5 total goals. In this example, the probability is quite high for both teams, 80% for Team A and 85% for Team B, suggesting that the match is likely to be low scoring.
On the contrary, the chance of the match finishing with over 2.5 goals is relatively low, 20% for Team A and 15% for Team B.
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